Control of the Senate on a Razor’s Edge

Not that you couldn’t find this out in a couple of thousand other blogs and web site, but as of 7 a.m. Wednesday morning here’s the situation:

In Virginia, Webb now leads by 8,359 votes with just 6 precincts statewide not reporting to the SBE. Those precincts include one in Isle of Wight County, one in Loudon County, one in Fairfax City, two in James City County, and one in Halifax County. Four of those precincts then are in localities that voted for Allen overall, but it seems impossible that there are enough votes there for Allen to make much headway into cutting into Webb’s first count lead.

A final lead of say, 7500 votes is a much better cushion for Webb to rest on than a 2000 vote margin heading into a recount. What will be critical now obviously is the quality of the legal representation Webb can muster heading into the recount process. (One piece of advice: don’t hire Warren Christopher.)

Amazingly, things are even tighter in Montana, where Democratic challenger Jon Tester’s overnight lead over Conrad Burns has been chipped down to fewer than 2,000 votes with 91% of precincts reporting, according to CNN. A quick scan of CNN’s results show that 3 of the 4 counties with outstanding precincts are split pretty much 50-50 in their vote totals to date, but does anybody know anything about Meagher County? That county has zero percent of precincts reporting.

Time for the country to learn much more about the intracacies of Montana geography and politics!  The Democrats need to hold on to victory in both Montana and Virginia to acquire control of the Senate.

Move over Florida! It’s our turn.

Update at 8:45.

In Virginia, the official results now show Webb’s lead at 6,931, with six precincts still out. (Webb somehow lost 1400 off his margin in the last update.)

Re Montana and Meagher County: Official Montana election results in 2004 show that in Meagher County, a total of 977 votes were cast; the Bush-Cheney ticket got 698 of those votes. If similar results obtained this year, than Burns probably has about 300-400 net votes in that county coming to him. Total population in Meagher County according to the 2000 U.S. Census was 1,932.

So Burns will pick up ground in Meagher, but not enough to overtake Tester. As of of 9 a.m., Meagher is the only county with uncounted votes in Montana, and Tester’s lead is over 1,500. Throw in the Meagher results and Tester should still be ahead by well over 1,000 votes, going into what presumably will be a recount.

Published in: on November 8, 2006 at 12:23 pm  Comments (4)  

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4 CommentsLeave a comment

  1. Burns is claiming that Meagher is heavily replublican.

  2. Post updated to reflect some info on Meagher County.

  3. It’s Iraq’s fault!

    I just read the RTD’s lazy “Too Close” editorial this morning, in which they blame Iraq for Allen’s (apparent) downfall. Puh-lease. Iraq was a GOP liability back in July, too, when Allen had a comfortable double-digit lead. No, Allen brought himself down by opening his mouth and showing his true colors.

    I’m more than a little embarrassed that this race is still as close as it is. How could any self-respecting Virginian show support for someone who made their state a laughingstock?

  4. “I’m more than a little embarrassed that this race is still as close as it is. How could any self-respecting Virginian show support for someone who made their state a laughingstock?”

    We North Carolinians (well, not me, but over 50% of the electorate) made an art-form out of it.

    See Helms, Jesse.

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